Market and Economy Expectations for 2020
Our investment professionals recently attended the 14th annual iA Securities Year Ahead Investment Conference in Toronto. The day brings top investment minds together to provide market and economy expectations for 2020.
Differing viewpoints of more than 20 industry experts were shared, including:
- Clément Gignac, iA Financial Group’s Chief Economist
- Myles Zyblock, Chief Investment Strategist at Dynamic Fund
- Alfred Murata of PIMCO, who runs the largest mutual fund in the world
- Greg Valliere, the Chief U.S. Policy Strategist at AGF Investments
What can we expect from the economy and markets in 2020?
Stay the course
Over the last 11 years we have experienced the longest economic expansion ever. With all of this growth you may worry that a downturn is due. Insight from the day showed that there is not much of an expectation that things will fall apart in 2020. In fact, the consensus view was that there is approximately a “30% probability of a recession in the US in the next 12 – 18 months”1. The Canadian economy is in a good position and measured growth is expected in 2020. So staying the course seems to be a wise approach.
Global growth may be ramping up and some of the storm clouds surrounding global trade that impacted 2019 are dissipating. While we expect growth in 2020, it sounds like it will be measured. It won’t be so pronounced as to run the risk of causing things to overheat. This should keep central banks on the sidelines which may mean interest rates won’t fluctuate much in 2020.
The US election will be much talked of in the news throughout this year. While the stock market may be affected by this, the predominant view of the day believes any impact on the stock market will likely be short lived. While no one has a crystal ball, the consensus viewpoint is that the election is Trump’s to lose, and he will likely pull out all the stops to secure his victory, including another round of tax cuts.
If you would like to hear more market and economy expectations for 2020, please reach out to Chuck or David and they’ll share more about what they learned at the 14th annual iA Securities Year Ahead Investment Conference.
1 iA Securities 2020 Advisor Reference Guide, distributed on Jan 22, 2020.
YAIC Client Letter 2020 EN, distributed on Jan 22, 2020.
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